The Armenians were one of the most loyal communities in the Ottoman empire. They peacefully lived in Istanbul and in Eastern Anatolia with Turkish and Kurdish communities until the western powers provoke them to weaken it from inside at the end of the 19th century. During the First World War they waged an existential war in eastern Anatolia and were exiled to south (Arab region) and expelled to north (old Azerbaijan territories under Russian occupation).

At the end of the war, today’s Armenia was carved in Caucasia with Russia’s help. The historical Zengezur corridor was also given to Armenia by Russia to curtail Azerbaijan’s position and to support the survival of Armenian state with an access to Iran. However, Armenia did not suffice with that gain and aspired even to control Eastern Anatolia in its constitution. After the collapse of the Soviet Empire, Armenia invaded the Karabagh region in 1993 and displaced and killed many Azerbaijanis. In 2020, Azerbaijan managed to take back its territories in Karabagh with a ceasefire that oversees normalization with Armenia.

One of the critical items of the ceasefire agreement (Article 9) requires Armenia to open the Zengezur Corridor in order to connect the autonomous Nahjivan republic with the homeland Azerbaijan. After the planned signing of a comprehensive peace treaty, Turkey also promised to normalize its relations with Armenia. The Turkish-Armenian border is closed due to its invasion of Azerbaijani territories and their territorial claims in Eastern Anatolia. However, both internal and external dynamics delayed the enactment of this article and the signing of a comprehensive peace treaty between the two countries.

Due to the critical nature of Caucasia, both Russia and the USA want to keep Armenia as their ally and provide it with diplomatic and financial support. They did not exert any pressure to cede its invaded territories during the last three centuries. After the 2020 victory of Azerbaijani, they kept supporting Armenia diplomatically as the Biden administration want to punish Turkey more than Azerbaijan by recognizing the Armenian genocide claims of the World War I that are rejected by Turkey. Because they could not deny the legal rights of Azerbaijan over Karabagh, they could not pressure Azerbaijan too much not to alienate it from the West and Israel.

Turkey and Azerbaijan grew impatient with the dragging of a peace treaty and with the inaction in the Zengezur corridor project because they want to move forward in bolstering Turkey’s economic ties with Azerbaijan and also with Central Asia. On the other hand, Iran wants to actively prevent the opening of the Zengezur corridor and to prevent a normalization between Armenia with Azerbaijan and Turkey. After the ceasefire in 2020, Turkey suggested that the Zengezur corridor is not only east-west direction but also north-south direction to include Iran, but this has not convinced Iran.

However, the increasing ties among Turkish states worry Iran which has a major Turkish speaking population itself (e.g., Azeris, Turkmens, Kashkai and Khorasani Turks). Moreover, Iran sees the Muslim Turkic republics as its backyard in Central Asia. An increased cooperation among the Turkish countries means an increasing influence of Turkey that Iran sees as a zero-sum game. A potential military support of Iran for Armenia would cause a serious backlash in the northern Iran where a huge number of Azerbaijani Turks live. Turkey also emphasized that any attack on Azerbaijan means an attack on Turkey itself.

Armenia’s delaying of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan is linked to the nationalist movement inside Armenia that blame Pashinyan for being lenient and weak in sustaining national interests. Of course, a more nationalist and fanatic Armenian diaspora in the West also intervenes in a negative way. In the critical Caucasia region, the Georgian government seems to lean toward Russia and Azerbaijan is neutral. Therefore, it is critical for both Russia and the West to gain Armenia on their side in the Ukraine war. The West looks eager to see a reconciliation between them while Russia quietly prefers the conflict continuing to distract the world and to impose itself as a mediator or stabilizing force in the Caucasia.

Azerbaijan and Armenia are making military buildups around the border while sporadic military skirmishes or clashes continue in the border and in the Hankendi city that is supposed to be left for Azerbaijan gradually. Despite a serious level of pressure, it is likely that the clashes will remain limited to Karabagh. There is news about Iran giving kamikaze drones to Aremenia and help them to attain some arsenal from India. While very worried about its strategic loss of the Zengezur corridor, Iran will not gamble to enter a losing fight against Azerbaijan and Turkey as both sides know the destructive risk of a regional conflict.