The Ottoman Empire lost Egypt and Suez Canal to Great Britain and want to build an alternative trade route connecting the East and the West. The Berlin-Baghdad railroad was planned to connect the Arabian Gulf (and Indian Ocean) to the North Sea and the Hejaz railroad would be a railway parallel to the Suez Canal leading to Yemen. However, it was interrupted by the WWI and today we have a different Middle East designed by the West. As the global geopolitics began to change with the recent rise of China, we see the renewal of trade wars and war of trade corridors. At the focus of these global competition is China’s global project called the Road and Belt Initiative that aims to spread the Chinese products all over the world fast and securely.

The Coronavirus pandemic proved the importance of supply-chains as the Ukraine war proved the significance of the sea routes such as the Black Sea (e.g. grains). Similar projects of global trade were announced by European Union announced Global Gateway, the USA launched Blue Dot Network and Russia proposed Eurasian Economic Union. The latest of these projects was announced on the sidelines of the G20 summit. The Biden administration wants to score a victory against the rising China during the election year. His security advisor Jake Sullivan stressed the potential of economic growth and connectivity in the Middle East. The corridor is said to pass through EAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel. It is not clear whether why it did not include Oman that has good relations with India and Iraq that can be a direct land and faster connection through Turkey. More critically, Egypt looks very worried about the emergence of an alternative to the Suez Canal, a main source of income and as a strategic asset.

Turkish officials also questioned the use of the corridor if it bypasses Turkey that has already completed its road and railway infrastructure. Turkey wants a quicker connection to the Central Asia through the Zengezour corridor in Caucasia and to the Arabian Gulf through Iraq. The Ukraine war interrupted the Northern corridor of China’s Road and Belt Initiative. Then, its Middle Corridor that passes through Azerbaijan became more critical. Because Turkey is linked to Azerbaijan through Georgia and through Iran, they are both pressing hard on Armenia to open the Zengezour corridor to make the route shorter and faster. Turkey is connected to the Arabian Gulf through Iraq or the Suez Canal. Unlike Iran, Turkey supports the activation of the “development corridor” by Iraq. The corridor might strengthen Iraqi economy and politics against the Iranian influence.

The India-Middle East-Europe corridor can complicate regional geopolitics if it involves Israel. It may bring together the countries that are excluded from the project such as Oman, Iraq, Turkey and Egypt. Of course, China will not stay hands tied with a lot of resources and its current advancement in the race. The new trade corridor also has several black spots. One, the competitive power of India is no match with China that has 5 times bigger GDP in 2022. Two is who will fund this major project as India do not have enough resources to fund this project like China. Currently the USA and Europeans devoted most of their resources to the Ukraine war. Therefore, they will not be very eager to fund it as indirect benefactors of the project. The alternative source of funding would be the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and UAE.

Three, the inclusion of Israel also complicates the process because normalization debates will take a long time with Arab countries and the stability of Israel will also be a question mark for investors. Four, the current version of the corridor will be interrupted by several transfer of goods in the land and sea as it will go like land – sea – land – sea – land. Each connection will add more time and cost to the Indian products against the Chinese and other products. If the line choses the Iraq-Turkey alternative, it will be the form of a land – sea – land connection only, reducing time and cost of the transferred products, let alone the construction cost. It will represent the revival of the Berlin-Baghdad railroad. Therefore, the choice is for the funders of this project, especially for the Saudi Arabia.