Ahmet Uysal

The Caucasus and Central Asia.. What do they mean for the Arab world?

Prof. Dr. Ahmet UYSAL

It is evident that we are currently under a period of global and regional transformations. Just as we witnessed shifts in the Arab region over the past decade, it is now observed in the strategically significant region; The Caucasus. Hence the axis is pivotal for the East, West, South, and North. Whereas the Caucasus played a decisive role in both World Wars, the First and the Second. The Turkic world, known as ancient Turkestan in Central Asia, is also significant due to its historical legacy. It stood as a gem in the Islamic world and rivaled Andalusia with its scientific, intellectual, and commercial centers. After the Mongols devastated Central Asia in the Middle Ages, this region experienced its military zenith during the Timurid state, which extended its influence on Anatolia and the Levant in the fifteenth century.

Central Asia has embraced numerous successive states and civilizations throughout history, most notably the Mongol and Timurid empires. Central Asia weakened after the collapse of the Timurid state, giving rise to multiple states in its place. This Turkic region fell under the imperial Russian rule in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Following the Bolshevik Revolution, Turkic peoples in Central Asia attempted to attain independence after The First World War, however in aftermath there were brutally suppressed. They eventually achieved their independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union, leading to the emergence of Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.

Most Central Asian countries are endowed with oil and gas resources, though to a lesser extent than oil-rich Arab nations. For instance, Kazakhstan is renowned for its vast fertile lands in addition to its oil and gas reserves, while other countries in the region possess distinct characteristics. Their geographical location between two global powers, China and Russia, is crucial, as well as their position along the northern and central routes of the Chinese Silk Road (Belt and Road Initiative). This region has gained significance following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine and the escalating apprehensions regarding the anticipated conflict between China and the United States, prompting increased interest from both parties in Central Asia. Turkey, for its part, maintains distinctive relations and strong ties with Turkic Central Asian countries, particularly in cultural, political, and social spheres, given their shared Turkic linguistic heritage.

There are four interrelated factors have bolstered the prominence of Central Asian nations in recent years. Firstly, American pressure on China has led to an increased American interest in this region, a trend witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic and the era of Donald Trump. The second factor, occurring nearly concurrently with the first, is Azerbaijan’s victory and its successful reclamation of territories in the Karabakh region with Turkish support, thereby even though partially it bolstered the morale of Central Asian peoples and diminishing traditional Russian influence in the area. The third factor is the conflict in Ukraine, which also erodes Russia’s influence in the region and distracts Russians from developments in Central Asia. The most recent example of this was when Azerbaijan completed the reclamation of its territories in Karabakh during the 2020 war. Russia swiftly moved to consolidate its foothold in the Caucasus, supposedly mediating between Azerbaijan and Armenia and deploying Russian peacekeeping forces in the conflict zone. However, the course of the war in Ukraine and Azerbaijan’s recent victory in reclaiming the remaining Azerbaijani territories in Karabakh from Armenian control thwarted this Russian scheme. The fourth factor is the West’s pursuit of securing alternative energy resources apart from Russian energy, further enhancing the position of oil-rich Turkish nations in Central Asia, similar to oil-rich Arab countries.

 

Given these developments, cooperation between Arab states and Turkic Central Asian nations has become exceedingly crucial in the realms of security, energy, and politics. On the other hand, Arab countries, particularly those in the Gulf, can counterbalance Iranian pressures from the East and the North through their relations with Central Asian nations. Arab states have begun to show a more earnest interest in Central Asia. The Arab League summit in 2022 in Algeria hosted Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and the Gulf Cooperation Council summit with Central Asian countries in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, earlier this year emphasized the “importance of enhancing political and strategic relations between Gulf countries and Central Asian countries, in addition to promoting trade, economic cooperation, and encouraging joint investments.” The statement also highlighted the necessity of developing transportation routes between the two regions and building commercial and logistical networks.

In conclusion trade and logistical corridor wars have gained great significance in recent times, and it is expected that historical and cultural ties between peoples will play a significant role in shaping the new world. Therefore, relations between Arab states and Turkic nations in Central Asia are assuming strategic importance in this evolving global landscape.