What is called the Middle East is the heart of the world because it connects 3 continents and 7 seas. Western ambitions in the Middle East comes from the Roman time as it re-emerged during the Crusades and amplified with the Napoleon’s invasion of Egypt and the World War I. When the West left the Middle East, they planted Israel as their proxy there to keep the region divided. Therefore, the Palestine issue (al qadiya alfilistinia) continues as the main problem of peace and stability in the Middle East.

While we are witnessing radical changes around the world, it is just natural to see the reflections of such changes in the Middle East. The Palestine issue that concerns justice, peace, stability, democracy and development in the region. Since its inception, the West guaranteed protection over Israel’s all kinds of cruel actions against Palestine. However, the Palestinians have not surrendered and maintained their willpower for independence and dignity.

The Palestinian resistance turn from defense into offense during the years. Simply, it transformed from slings in the 1990s to drones and missiles in 2000s. Despite a heavy embargo and continuous harassment and attacks, Israel could not break the spirit and willpower of Palestine, especially Gazza. The Netanyahu’s 30 year rule moved the Israeli public toward more radical policies and Trump administration gave whatever Netanyahu wanted, including transferring Israeli capital to Jerusalem, backing down from two-state solution and enlarging settlements.

There are several other reasons for the congestion (intiqan) on the Palestine side: The continuing siege of Gazza, random arrests and killings, enlarging settlements, the violations of masaajid and continuing harassment of Palestinians by the settlers and security officials. According to the UN reports, the number of Palestinians killed by Israel reached 200 in the year 2023 even before this crisis. The latest attacks by Alqassam Brigades from Gaza to Israel surprised everyone inside and outside. The comprehensice operation shattered the image of strong Israeli military and intelligence, and the radical Netanyahu leadership.

Of course, there will be regional implication of this operation. The process of Arab normalization with Israel will stall because it destroyed the image of strong Israel and Arab’s and Muslim’s sympathy for Palestine will put extra pressure on Arab governments to stay away from Israel. Another blow will be on the India-Middle East economic corridor. As I mentioned in my previous article titled “wars of corridors” on alSharq, the operation of this corridor cannot be secured without a peace in Palestine. On the other hand, with strong relations with Russian jews in Israel and radical right like Netanyahu and Trump, Russia will be happy to see the distraction of the West from the Ukraine war.

So far it looks like Israel will respond by bombing Gazza to the ground if the international public remains silent about Israeli atrocities. It is not yet clear whether Israel will or can do a ground operation into Gaza or whether Hezballah enter the conflict from the North. I think Israel will hesitate in both fronts in order not to face a further surprise and a defeat that might mean the end of Israel. It will probably rely heavily on bombing from air.

This crisis will definitely help improve Iran’s image in the Middle East as the main sponsor of Hamas. The Palestine issue is solely Iran’s problem, it is rather the problem of all the region and Islamic world. The crisis provides an opportunity for the regional countries such as Qatar and Turkey to take the initiative to lead the Muslim countries to provide a unified stance against Israeli massacres and to pressure America and the West to pressure Israel sit on the negotiations for a sustainable peace and stability in the region. A genocide of Palestinians will can cause a big popular mobilization in Arab countries, leading to a new round of Arab spring which the West does not want.