After some Arab countries normalized with the Assad regime and was also re-admitted Syria to the Arab League, the hopes for a solution to the Syrian crisis have risen. However, the recent interview by Bashar al Asad on an Arab TV raised the question whether the Assad regime is ready for a comprehensive solution and especially whether he wants the Syrian refugees back to Syria. The return of Syrian refugees is the main reason why countries such as Jordan and Turkey have softened their stance toward the Assad regime. Does Assad and hi allies want the Syrians back to their home?

First of all, the Syrian regimes supervisors of Iran, namely Iran and Russia, do not seek the end of the Syrian crisis because Russia is busy with the Ukraine war and Iran is trying consolidate its presence in Syrian society, economy and politics. Neither has the capacity to fund the reconstruction Syria even if the deadlock is resolved. Because Iran also uses the current situation to spread its Shia sect either by converting the Sunnis or by bringing Shias from Afghanistan or Pakistan, it does not have an interest the return of mostly Sunni refugees around the world.

Not feeling a real pressure from outside, the Assad regime does not show any serious intention to bring back Syrians refugees. Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon where the refugees are concentrated will be very happy see Syrians could go back to Syria. Arab Gulf countries also concerned about the production and export of addictive drugs from Syria. Because the regime did not change much of its actions after normalization, we notice a lessening of enthusiasm to embrace the Assad regime in the Arab capitals.

The Assad regime’s misconducts such as unlawful detentions, torture, rape, incarceration and execution continues to create obstacles for its citizens’ return. Some Syrian refugees returned to Syria from Jordan in 2021 but they were mis-treaded and were subject to the same old abuses as mentions Human Rights Watch report. In the past, the regime has confiscated the assets of many deserters, detainees and convicts, including their houses, lands and vehicles in Syria.

One can ask why then the Syrian government periodically declares general amnesties to invite Syrians back home? These amnesties are used as a propaganda method to claim normalcy and competency in the country, but the calls did not convince Syrians outside. Amnesty International’s report titled “You’re going to your death” published in 2021 revealed that 66 Syrians, 13 of whom were children, who returned to their countries following various calls for amnesty, were targets of detention, torture, rape and executions.

Turkey is trying to resettle 1 million Syrian refugees in Northern Syria in cooperation with Qatar by building homes and supporting economic infrastructure. However, the Assad regime rejected Turkey’s project to send Syrian refugees back to “safe zones” on the Syrian border as its Foreign Minister’s statement claims it would lead to an ethnic cleansing. But it does not explain how it would be an ethnic cleansing. On the other hand, the Iranian backed militias and foreign Shia communities that settled in the Sunni territories also intimidate anyone trying to go back to his hometown. Such actions intimidate Syrian refugees and discourage them from returning to Syria.

Secondly, the Assad regime does not have the capacity to receive the Syrian refugees due to harsh economic conditions there. In the recent interview, Bashar Assad himself admitted his failure to embrace Syrians by saying “during the last years, less than half a million Syrian returned because of economic conditions. How can a refugee return without water, electricity, schools and healthcare available?” In conclusion, the Assad regime does want the return of Syrian and does not have the capacity to welcome them to live a descent life.