Uncategorized

Education Positions Publications Congresses Projects Prizes *Türkçe *عربية IS THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR THE WORLD WAR III? Prof. Dr. Ahmet UYSAL The Great Roman Empire was split into East and West in the year 395. The Eastern Empire called the Byzantine adhered to Orthodox Christianity while the West was committed to Roman Catholicism. Their differences grew in time while the Western Rome collapsed in 476 but Byzantine lasted until 1453 to be ended by the Ottoman conquest of Istanbul. While sides were inspired by the Roman history as the Russian Tsar adopted this title in reference to the Roman Ceasar. In the meantime, the Western world witnessed the arrival of Protestantism and fierce struggle between the Catholicism and Protestantism and later a similar class between the Catholic Church and Secular movements. Like the Russian Tsar, the Spanish, French and British Kings referred to the Roman Empire’s grandeur and competed with Russia as their main rivals. That’s why French Napoleon and Adolf Hitler tried to invade Russia but failed dearly. The spread of the British empire and the Tsarist empire competed in Asia, in the Baltic and the Middle East until the First World War. The competition continued even after the arrival of the Soviet Empire and following the replacement of the Great Britain by the USA as a superpower after the World War II. The competition continued almost in all continents. When the Soviet Empire was collapsing, the Russian elites made a deal with the West to maintain their prestige and nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. After Russia realized that it would not be accepted in the Western club, it began to become bolder against the West. In the meantime, the West was expanding its areas of influence to Russian areas of influence under the umbrella of the NATO. When Putin’s Russia began to question its status of a land-locked country, it began to expand the borders of the initial deal with the West and began to annex territories of Georgia and Ukraine (namely, Abkhazia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014). Then Russia intervened in Syria but did not receive a serious condemnation from the West. They even overlooked the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons. The gradual NATO expansion in the Eastern Europe worried Russia and began its threats to both Ukraine and the West, leading to Russian attempt at a direct invasion of Ukraine by Russia that called it a special operation rather than a total war in February 2022. This evolved to being a world war because it involved three of four superpowers in the world. Of course, both sides used high-tech weapons and smart weapons to cause a major damage to the infrastructure and casualties reaching 15 thousand deaths and 62 thousand injuries from both sides. The Ukraine war came with several surprises. One, the world was surprised by Russia’s unpreparedness for after the first incursion to invade the capital Kiev. Two, Russia was surprised by Ukraine resilience and resistance. That was because the West prepared the Ukrainian public and military for it, and also provided unlimited military, economic and diplomatic support for Ukraine. Three, the West was surprised by Russia’s economic resilience as they could not prevent Russia from selling its oil and gas. That was because Europe needed Russian gas and alternatives were easily available. Many Western allies like Arabs, Turkey and India did not support the West in this war. Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, indirectly supported Russia by raising oil prices. Today the Ukraine war reached a stalemate between the West and Russia. The expected Ukrainian counter-offensive failed to push Russia out of invaded territories in the East of Ukraine. Russia withdrew from the grain deal to pressure the global economy to export its grain in the new harvest season. Nobody knows if the war will involve using nuclear weapons and how long it will last. We also know that US-China competition is accelerating. The sudden US withdrawal from Afghanistan and its inability to stop Houthi attacks on the Saudi Aramco shows that the superpowers have their own priorities over our security concern. Therefore, the superpowers’ occupation with each other gives an opportunity for the Muslim countries to cooperate more closely especially to take care of our joint security and economic concerns. اقرأ الأصل باللغة العربية

Education Positions Publications Congresses Projects Prizes *Türkçe *عربية TURKISH-ARAB RELATIONS IN THE LIGHT OF GLOBAL CHANGES Prof. Dr. Ahmet UYSAL The whole world is going through major and critical transformations because of the retreat of the West and the rise of the East (e.g. China, Russia and India), the Coronavirus and the war between Ukraine and Russia. Nobody can predict whether this war will lead to a nuclear war or the World War III. Of course, superpower struggles impact the economies and policies of other countries in this age of globalization, the Middle East region is also impacted by these changes but also influence global process such as oil and gas production.   The Arab region and Turkiye (the Middle East) are the most critical location on Earth as they connect three continents and three seas (namely, the Black Sea, Mediterranean and the Red Sea). We also witness serious changes and the struggle for no-change in the Middle East after the so-called Arab Spring, the reversal of Qatar siege, the end of ISIS, the Saudi-İran reconciliation, the revival of the Turkish-Gulf relations and the US retreat in the region. The Russia-Ukraine was boosted the posture of gas and oil producing Arab countries while the rising food prices caused serious worries among some other Arab countries.   Turkiye also exited from very critical and tight elections that were watched very carefully around the world. The Washington Post newspaper and the Economist, and Foreign Policy magazines called it “the most important elections in the world”. After a two decade rule, Erdogan won this hard fought elections and will continue his multi-dimensional foreign policy. Unlike the past governments that turned toward the West only, Erdogan opened up to the Arab and Muslim worlds and to Africa and Asia, and balanced its relations with the West and Russia even in the Ukraine war. Previously, Turkiye was able to bring the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers and managed to mediate in the grain deal that saved the world from hunger.   This new situation provides a better opportunity for an improved cooperation between Turkiye and the Arab world. The high level attendance from the Arab, Turkish and Islamic worlds and Africa proves the importance of Turkiye’s relations with these regions. After the elections Erdogan completed a comprehensive visit to the Gulf region with an economic, military and political cooperation. However, the fact that the Turkish-Arab rapprochement would bring stability and prosperity to the conflict-torn Middle East. Turkish-Arab relations also encouraged the rapprochement of the Gulf and Central Asian Turkish countries represented in their recent summit.   On the economic field, the Turkish and Arab economies complement each other. As an industrial, trade and touristic country, Turkiye imports oil and gas from Arab countries and attract tourists and investments from them. The Arab world finds affordable but quality consumer goods and opportunities of high-return investments. Turkish economy was hurt by high oil and food prices after the Ukraine war and two major earthquakes and by the uncertainty prior to the critical elections. Currently the Turkish-Arab economic relations are increasing with the encouragement of increasing political and security cooperation.   The security cooperation between Turkiye and Arab countries are a natural outcome of the ceaseless conflicts in the region (e.g. Yemen, Syria, Libya, Sudan, etc.). Because global powers have no interest resolving the crises of our region despite their sweet talks, a regional perspective is needed to tackle security issues. The sudden US withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan worried the Arab countries about their future security. The long Arab-Iranian tension is now alleviating after the Chinese mediation this year. Turkish military cooperation with Qatar and Kuwait that bought Turkish drones is now expanding to Saudi Arabia after Erdogan’s recent visit to the Gulf region.. As the confidence is building up between the two sides, the area of security cooperation is likely to increase in the long run, as well. اقرأ الأصل باللغة العربية