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Education Positions Publications Congresses Projects Prizes *Türkçe *عربية BIG POWERS AND THE PALESTINE CRISIS Prof. Dr. Ahmet UYSAL What is the approach of major big powers toward the recent conflict in Gaza and Israel’s continuing onslaughts against the Palestinian people. It is understandable that the West did not want to change the status quo they designed in the Middle East. However, other big powers do not see a major change there, either. For example, Russia’s president Putin said that Israel has been victim of terrific attack and has a right to self-defense against the unprecedented brutality of Hamas attack and stressed the need for a ceasefire and a two-state solution. In a benign understanding with the USA, Russia has interests in Syria, Libya and Iraq so it will try to maintain its interests there. The Ukraine war did not even change their understanding on the future of Assad and Haftar. Russia is trying to balance between Hamas and Israel as well as between Israel and Iran that is a major supplier of drones to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Interestingly Russia has good relations with the Israeli radical right (Netanyahu and Lieberman) while its ally Iran supports Hamas. On the other hand, we observe that Russian institutions such as intelligence and foreign ministry lean toward Arabs with they have close ties since the Soviet time. As a major superpower, China that is trying to balance its relations with the warring sides indirectly criticized Hamas attacks without naming it. With the aggravating situation in Gaza, China became critical of Israeli actions in the Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s words “Israel’s actions have gone beyond self-defense and Israel must not implement a collective punishment of Gazzan people.” With a low profile approach in the Middle East issues, China’s main concern is to secure trade routes in the Middle East, reflected in its military basis in Djibouti to prevent piracy against Chinese vessels. The Middle East is important to China as it buys a half of its oil from and natural gas with 15 percent. These rates are expected to rise in the future as well. Without taking side in the conflict, China supports a two-state solution in Palestine. China might even consider mediating between Israel and Palestine as it did between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Moreover, there are two differences in China and US policies toward Israeli-Palestinian conflict. One, China does not feel internal pressure to intervene in the conflict. Two, China does not have allies to defend in the Middle East. With its third world tradition, India historically aligned with Arabs as it was the first non-Arab countries that recognized the PLO. However, Indu nationalist Modi changed this approach in recent years. After the Hamas attacks, Modi came out to support Israel and said Hamas is a terrorist organization. Indian foreign ministry try to look more balanced after the Modi statements. On the other hand, 200 million Indian Muslims and other non-Muslims historically sympathize with Palestine. India’s colonial past make the public opinion there more sypathetic to the occupied Palestine. In the election year, Modi’s anti-Muslim approach brings him closer to Israel and Netanyahu. Today India and Israel also have very strong military relations. Like China, India also buys Middle East oil and wants to establish an alternative trade corridor through the Gulf and Israel to Europe as recently announced. The Palestine crisis and instability in Israel might hinder this difficult project. India is facing diplomatic crisis with Canada (US neighbor) that accused them for killing a Sikh leaders in their territories. India did not support the West in the Ukraine war so now it might try to do more to please the USA by supporting Israel. اقرأ الأصل باللغة العربية

Education Positions Publications Congresses Projects Prizes *Türkçe *عربية The Caucasus and Central Asia.. What do they mean for the Arab world? Prof. Dr. Ahmet UYSAL It is evident that we are currently under a period of global and regional transformations. Just as we witnessed shifts in the Arab region over the past decade, it is now observed in the strategically significant region; The Caucasus. Hence the axis is pivotal for the East, West, South, and North. Whereas the Caucasus played a decisive role in both World Wars, the First and the Second. The Turkic world, known as ancient Turkestan in Central Asia, is also significant due to its historical legacy. It stood as a gem in the Islamic world and rivaled Andalusia with its scientific, intellectual, and commercial centers. After the Mongols devastated Central Asia in the Middle Ages, this region experienced its military zenith during the Timurid state, which extended its influence on Anatolia and the Levant in the fifteenth century. Central Asia has embraced numerous successive states and civilizations throughout history, most notably the Mongol and Timurid empires. Central Asia weakened after the collapse of the Timurid state, giving rise to multiple states in its place. This Turkic region fell under the imperial Russian rule in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Following the Bolshevik Revolution, Turkic peoples in Central Asia attempted to attain independence after The First World War, however in aftermath there were brutally suppressed. They eventually achieved their independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union, leading to the emergence of Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Most Central Asian countries are endowed with oil and gas resources, though to a lesser extent than oil-rich Arab nations. For instance, Kazakhstan is renowned for its vast fertile lands in addition to its oil and gas reserves, while other countries in the region possess distinct characteristics. Their geographical location between two global powers, China and Russia, is crucial, as well as their position along the northern and central routes of the Chinese Silk Road (Belt and Road Initiative). This region has gained significance following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine and the escalating apprehensions regarding the anticipated conflict between China and the United States, prompting increased interest from both parties in Central Asia. Turkey, for its part, maintains distinctive relations and strong ties with Turkic Central Asian countries, particularly in cultural, political, and social spheres, given their shared Turkic linguistic heritage. There are four interrelated factors have bolstered the prominence of Central Asian nations in recent years. Firstly, American pressure on China has led to an increased American interest in this region, a trend witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic and the era of Donald Trump. The second factor, occurring nearly concurrently with the first, is Azerbaijan’s victory and its successful reclamation of territories in the Karabakh region with Turkish support, thereby even though partially it bolstered the morale of Central Asian peoples and diminishing traditional Russian influence in the area. The third factor is the conflict in Ukraine, which also erodes Russia’s influence in the region and distracts Russians from developments in Central Asia. The most recent example of this was when Azerbaijan completed the reclamation of its territories in Karabakh during the 2020 war. Russia swiftly moved to consolidate its foothold in the Caucasus, supposedly mediating between Azerbaijan and Armenia and deploying Russian peacekeeping forces in the conflict zone. However, the course of the war in Ukraine and Azerbaijan’s recent victory in reclaiming the remaining Azerbaijani territories in Karabakh from Armenian control thwarted this Russian scheme. The fourth factor is the West’s pursuit of securing alternative energy resources apart from Russian energy, further enhancing the position of oil-rich Turkish nations in Central Asia, similar to oil-rich Arab countries.   Given these developments, cooperation between Arab states and Turkic Central Asian nations has become exceedingly crucial in the realms of security, energy, and politics. On the other hand, Arab countries, particularly those in the Gulf, can counterbalance Iranian pressures from the East and the North through their relations with Central Asian nations. Arab states have begun to show a more earnest interest in Central Asia. The Arab League summit in 2022 in Algeria hosted Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and the Gulf Cooperation Council summit with Central Asian countries in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, earlier this year emphasized the “importance of enhancing political and strategic relations between Gulf countries and Central Asian countries, in addition to promoting trade, economic cooperation, and encouraging joint investments.” The statement also highlighted the necessity of developing transportation routes between the two regions and building commercial and logistical networks. In conclusion trade and logistical corridor wars have gained great significance in recent times, and it is expected that historical and cultural ties between peoples will play a significant role in shaping the new world. Therefore, relations between Arab states and Turkic nations in Central Asia are assuming strategic importance in this evolving global landscape. اقرأ الأصل باللغة العربية

Education Positions Publications Congresses Projects Prizes *Türkçe *عربية Will the Opening of the Zengezur Corridor Cause a Regional War in Caucasia? Prof. Dr. Ahmet UYSAL The Armenians were one of the most loyal communities in the Ottoman empire. They peacefully lived in Istanbul and in Eastern Anatolia with Turkish and Kurdish communities until the western powers provoke them to weaken it from inside at the end of the 19th century. During the First World War they waged an existential war in eastern Anatolia and were exiled to south (Arab region) and expelled to north (old Azerbaijan territories under Russian occupation). At the end of the war, today’s Armenia was carved in Caucasia with Russia’s help. The historical Zengezur corridor was also given to Armenia by Russia to curtail Azerbaijan’s position and to support the survival of Armenian state with an access to Iran. However, Armenia did not suffice with that gain and aspired even to control Eastern Anatolia in its constitution. After the collapse of the Soviet Empire, Armenia invaded the Karabagh region in 1993 and displaced and killed many Azerbaijanis. In 2020, Azerbaijan managed to take back its territories in Karabagh with a ceasefire that oversees normalization with Armenia. One of the critical items of the ceasefire agreement (Article 9) requires Armenia to open the Zengezur Corridor in order to connect the autonomous Nahjivan republic with the homeland Azerbaijan. After the planned signing of a comprehensive peace treaty, Turkey also promised to normalize its relations with Armenia. The Turkish-Armenian border is closed due to its invasion of Azerbaijani territories and their territorial claims in Eastern Anatolia. However, both internal and external dynamics delayed the enactment of this article and the signing of a comprehensive peace treaty between the two countries. Due to the critical nature of Caucasia, both Russia and the USA want to keep Armenia as their ally and provide it with diplomatic and financial support. They did not exert any pressure to cede its invaded territories during the last three centuries. After the 2020 victory of Azerbaijani, they kept supporting Armenia diplomatically as the Biden administration want to punish Turkey more than Azerbaijan by recognizing the Armenian genocide claims of the World War I that are rejected by Turkey. Because they could not deny the legal rights of Azerbaijan over Karabagh, they could not pressure Azerbaijan too much not to alienate it from the West and Israel. Turkey and Azerbaijan grew impatient with the dragging of a peace treaty and with the inaction in the Zengezur corridor project because they want to move forward in bolstering Turkey’s economic ties with Azerbaijan and also with Central Asia. On the other hand, Iran wants to actively prevent the opening of the Zengezur corridor and to prevent a normalization between Armenia with Azerbaijan and Turkey. After the ceasefire in 2020, Turkey suggested that the Zengezur corridor is not only east-west direction but also north-south direction to include Iran, but this has not convinced Iran. However, the increasing ties among Turkish states worry Iran which has a major Turkish speaking population itself (e.g., Azeris, Turkmens, Kashkai and Khorasani Turks). Moreover, Iran sees the Muslim Turkic republics as its backyard in Central Asia. An increased cooperation among the Turkish countries means an increasing influence of Turkey that Iran sees as a zero-sum game. A potential military support of Iran for Armenia would cause a serious backlash in the northern Iran where a huge number of Azerbaijani Turks live. Turkey also emphasized that any attack on Azerbaijan means an attack on Turkey itself. Armenia’s delaying of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan is linked to the nationalist movement inside Armenia that blame Pashinyan for being lenient and weak in sustaining national interests. Of course, a more nationalist and fanatic Armenian diaspora in the West also intervenes in a negative way. In the critical Caucasia region, the Georgian government seems to lean toward Russia and Azerbaijan is neutral. Therefore, it is critical for both Russia and the West to gain Armenia on their side in the Ukraine war. The West looks eager to see a reconciliation between them while Russia quietly prefers the conflict continuing to distract the world and to impose itself as a mediator or stabilizing force in the Caucasia. Azerbaijan and Armenia are making military buildups around the border while sporadic military skirmishes or clashes continue in the border and in the Hankendi city that is supposed to be left for Azerbaijan gradually. Despite a serious level of pressure, it is likely that the clashes will remain limited to Karabagh. There is news about Iran giving kamikaze drones to Aremenia and help them to attain some arsenal from India. While very worried about its strategic loss of the Zengezur corridor, Iran will not gamble to enter a losing fight against Azerbaijan and Turkey as both sides know the destructive risk of a regional conflict. اقرأ الأصل باللغة العربية

Education Positions Publications Congresses Projects Prizes *Türkçe *عربية Palestine Resistance and Geopolitical Shift Prof. Dr. Ahmet UYSAL What is called the Middle East is the heart of the world because it connects 3 continents and 7 seas. Western ambitions in the Middle East comes from the Roman time as it re-emerged during the Crusades and amplified with the Napoleon’s invasion of Egypt and the World War I. When the West left the Middle East, they planted Israel as their proxy there to keep the region divided. Therefore, the Palestine issue (al qadiya alfilistinia) continues as the main problem of peace and stability in the Middle East. While we are witnessing radical changes around the world, it is just natural to see the reflections of such changes in the Middle East. The Palestine issue that concerns justice, peace, stability, democracy and development in the region. Since its inception, the West guaranteed protection over Israel’s all kinds of cruel actions against Palestine. However, the Palestinians have not surrendered and maintained their willpower for independence and dignity. The Palestinian resistance turn from defense into offense during the years. Simply, it transformed from slings in the 1990s to drones and missiles in 2000s. Despite a heavy embargo and continuous harassment and attacks, Israel could not break the spirit and willpower of Palestine, especially Gazza. The Netanyahu’s 30 year rule moved the Israeli public toward more radical policies and Trump administration gave whatever Netanyahu wanted, including transferring Israeli capital to Jerusalem, backing down from two-state solution and enlarging settlements. There are several other reasons for the congestion (intiqan) on the Palestine side: The continuing siege of Gazza, random arrests and killings, enlarging settlements, the violations of masaajid and continuing harassment of Palestinians by the settlers and security officials. According to the UN reports, the number of Palestinians killed by Israel reached 200 in the year 2023 even before this crisis. The latest attacks by Alqassam Brigades from Gaza to Israel surprised everyone inside and outside. The comprehensice operation shattered the image of strong Israeli military and intelligence, and the radical Netanyahu leadership. Of course, there will be regional implication of this operation. The process of Arab normalization with Israel will stall because it destroyed the image of strong Israel and Arab’s and Muslim’s sympathy for Palestine will put extra pressure on Arab governments to stay away from Israel. Another blow will be on the India-Middle East economic corridor. As I mentioned in my previous article titled “wars of corridors” on alSharq, the operation of this corridor cannot be secured without a peace in Palestine. On the other hand, with strong relations with Russian jews in Israel and radical right like Netanyahu and Trump, Russia will be happy to see the distraction of the West from the Ukraine war. So far it looks like Israel will respond by bombing Gazza to the ground if the international public remains silent about Israeli atrocities. It is not yet clear whether Israel will or can do a ground operation into Gaza or whether Hezballah enter the conflict from the North. I think Israel will hesitate in both fronts in order not to face a further surprise and a defeat that might mean the end of Israel. It will probably rely heavily on bombing from air. This crisis will definitely help improve Iran’s image in the Middle East as the main sponsor of Hamas. The Palestine issue is solely Iran’s problem, it is rather the problem of all the region and Islamic world. The crisis provides an opportunity for the regional countries such as Qatar and Turkey to take the initiative to lead the Muslim countries to provide a unified stance against Israeli massacres and to pressure America and the West to pressure Israel sit on the negotiations for a sustainable peace and stability in the region. A genocide of Palestinians will can cause a big popular mobilization in Arab countries, leading to a new round of Arab spring which the West does not want. اقرأ الأصل باللغة العربية

Education Positions Publications Congresses Projects Prizes *Türkçe *عربية Darna Flooding Disaster and Libya’s Disarray Prof. Dr. Ahmet UYSAL Libya as a major and critical country in the Arab Maghrib is feeling the pain because of a chronic mismanagement, internal controversies, and foreign interventions. The country is important for the peace, stability and wellbeing in the Mediterranean, the Arab world and Africa. The country lived under the one-men show of Muammer Qaddafi for about 40 years and it did not fare well during the last decade following the fall of his dictatorship in 2011. Continuous infightings, coup attempts and lack of leadership keep haunting the country today following a recent huge flooding that killed more than 10 thousand people in Darna on the east shore of the Mediterranean on September 12. The Darna Disaster is both sad and also very telling about the awful situation in the large country of oil and gas and other natural resources. The huge natural disaster hit the city of Darna but the destruction is mostly man-made because of a series of mistakes by the Haftar government that rules the East of Libya. The National Accord government does not look better or more capable of fixing the damages of the disaster. One mistake was that the Libyan officials’ not following weather forecast and taking necessary measures. Even if the Haftar administration failed, the central government could at least have warned the people. It is reported that the municipal committee gathered a day before the rainstorm and decided to evacuate the city by authorizing the security chief of Darna to implement the decision. However, the security chief did not implement the decision and he unilaterally ordered the fatal curfew upon citizens instead. Probably Hafter government gave the order to keep people at home against the floods willingly or unintentionally. In either case it is a crime to cause the death of so many people with intention or with negligence. The two dams that were supposed to protect the city from flooding collapsed due to the lack of proper maintenance since the 1990s and caused a huge damage. The day after the disaster the people of Darna protested against the Haftar administration, but the injured city was shut down to the outside world. Haftar’s men strengthened the security grip against the popular grievances and allowed only selected media outlets to the disaster zone. So what is really going on in Darna today is not clear to the outside world. There are news about the Egyptian military came to help control the security situation and Haftar went Russia to meet Putin probably to obtain military or security assistance. The weakening Haftar will make him more desperate to invite foreign intervention and will make him more despotic and that will increase the level of opposition and dislike among the Libyan population. Many countries like Qatar, Turkey and Kuwait have sent aids to Darna but the destruction is too big to be fixed in the short term. Unfortunately, we (the global public) do not know the scale of damage in the city and the exact number of deaths and missing. The early reporting of death toll and missing persons by civil society organizations has stopped by the Haftar administration. The lack of transparency obscures the real picture of destruction and hinders the persecution of those responsible for the high death toll. Without an international investigation, the death of thousands will go unpunished and without even acknowledgement. What the West cares about Libya is the energy and migrants coming from there. Time proved that they have no interest in the wellbeing of Libya as Libyans are divided by regional, tribal and ideological concerns. The foreign big powers are also busy with the Ukraine war and care less about Libya’s wellbeing today. The current governments are both failed in the East and the West. The Prime Minister Dibaiba was already shaken by the scandals of the Mangoush meeting Isaeli Foreign Minister and the fighting between the Rada and the 444 militias. However, the elections seem also very distant due to disagreements on the nature of candidacy and implementation. Therefore, it is better to renew the legitimacy with a new national accord government with new faces under the UN mandate to prepare the country for real elections. A broader cooperation among the regional countries such as Turkey, Egypt and the GCC on Libya will also be very critical. اقرأ الأصل باللغة العربية

Education Positions Publications Congresses Projects Prizes *Türkçe *عربية TRADE CORRIDOR WARS Prof. Dr. Ahmet UYSAL The Ottoman Empire lost Egypt and Suez Canal to Great Britain and want to build an alternative trade route connecting the East and the West. The Berlin-Baghdad railroad was planned to connect the Arabian Gulf (and Indian Ocean) to the North Sea and the Hejaz railroad would be a railway parallel to the Suez Canal leading to Yemen. However, it was interrupted by the WWI and today we have a different Middle East designed by the West. As the global geopolitics began to change with the recent rise of China, we see the renewal of trade wars and war of trade corridors. At the focus of these global competition is China’s global project called the Road and Belt Initiative that aims to spread the Chinese products all over the world fast and securely. The Coronavirus pandemic proved the importance of supply-chains as the Ukraine war proved the significance of the sea routes such as the Black Sea (e.g. grains). Similar projects of global trade were announced by European Union announced Global Gateway, the USA launched Blue Dot Network and Russia proposed Eurasian Economic Union. The latest of these projects was announced on the sidelines of the G20 summit. The Biden administration wants to score a victory against the rising China during the election year. His security advisor Jake Sullivan stressed the potential of economic growth and connectivity in the Middle East. The corridor is said to pass through EAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel. It is not clear whether why it did not include Oman that has good relations with India and Iraq that can be a direct land and faster connection through Turkey. More critically, Egypt looks very worried about the emergence of an alternative to the Suez Canal, a main source of income and as a strategic asset. Turkish officials also questioned the use of the corridor if it bypasses Turkey that has already completed its road and railway infrastructure. Turkey wants a quicker connection to the Central Asia through the Zengezour corridor in Caucasia and to the Arabian Gulf through Iraq. The Ukraine war interrupted the Northern corridor of China’s Road and Belt Initiative. Then, its Middle Corridor that passes through Azerbaijan became more critical. Because Turkey is linked to Azerbaijan through Georgia and through Iran, they are both pressing hard on Armenia to open the Zengezour corridor to make the route shorter and faster. Turkey is connected to the Arabian Gulf through Iraq or the Suez Canal. Unlike Iran, Turkey supports the activation of the “development corridor” by Iraq. The corridor might strengthen Iraqi economy and politics against the Iranian influence. The India-Middle East-Europe corridor can complicate regional geopolitics if it involves Israel. It may bring together the countries that are excluded from the project such as Oman, Iraq, Turkey and Egypt. Of course, China will not stay hands tied with a lot of resources and its current advancement in the race. The new trade corridor also has several black spots. One, the competitive power of India is no match with China that has 5 times bigger GDP in 2022. Two is who will fund this major project as India do not have enough resources to fund this project like China. Currently the USA and Europeans devoted most of their resources to the Ukraine war. Therefore, they will not be very eager to fund it as indirect benefactors of the project. The alternative source of funding would be the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and UAE. Three, the inclusion of Israel also complicates the process because normalization debates will take a long time with Arab countries and the stability of Israel will also be a question mark for investors. Four, the current version of the corridor will be interrupted by several transfer of goods in the land and sea as it will go like land – sea – land – sea – land. Each connection will add more time and cost to the Indian products against the Chinese and other products. If the line choses the Iraq-Turkey alternative, it will be the form of a land – sea – land connection only, reducing time and cost of the transferred products, let alone the construction cost. It will represent the revival of the Berlin-Baghdad railroad. Therefore, the choice is for the funders of this project, especially for the Saudi Arabia. اقرأ الأصل باللغة العربية

Education Positions Publications Congresses Projects Prizes *Türkçe *عربية The significance of the Arab tribal uprising against the SDF in Syria Prof. Dr. Ahmet UYSAL The Obama administration adopted the PKK as a parter in 2016 to fight against ISIS by ignoring Turkish opposition and demands to do it together with the USA. After the persistent opposition of Turkey against the PKK, they named the PKK in Syria as PYD and claimed that they are different the PKK and later added some Arab fighters by naming it Syrian Democratic Forces (SDG) to show its difference from the PYD. Among others, the Deirezzor Military Council was among these non-Kurdish militias around the Deirezzor area.   After many years together, the relations grew tenser (الإحتقان) between the PKK militias and so-called administrations after they were removed from most of the northwestern Syria through Turkish operations and weakened in northern Iraq. In the meantime the PKK style rule and its repressive dealing with local people intensified and bothered the Arab communities, including in Deirezzor. During the last the STG militias arrested the Ahmed al Khoubail known as Abu Khawla after they called him for consultations. This sparked huge protests between the PSD forces and Arab tribes in Deirezzour and spread to other areas under the PKK rule with US supervision. This proves that the الإحتقان is more widespread than Abu Khawla and Deirezzor.   The causes of congestion in the SDG ruled areas are repression exerted on Arab communities, continuing corruption, shortage of health and municipal services, the imposition of the communist ideology in education and compulsory military recruitment of Arab youth. The Arab youth do not want to be part of the SDG militias against any Turkish operations. SDG is trying to exert more control on Arab tribes and Arab militias including the لواء ثوار الرقة and the Military Council of Deirezzor. The military council was trying establish direct relations with the USA and the West, annoying the PKK. There are other external reasons that will be discussed below.   The latest clashes signify a significant turning point for the areas under the PYD control in Northern Syria. Turkey watches the developments there very closely as it insists on removing the PKK related groups from its borders and plans military operations. The USA and Russia keep supporting the PYD in Syria while they pledged that the PKK presence will go away from there but it did not happen, especially in Munbij. The developments supports Turkish claims that SDG is and extension of the PKK that wants to dominate the Arab areas with its cadres and ideology. Of course, Turkey will not be relaxed after the end of PKK’s presence and activities in Syria and Iraq.   However, the new tension between the PKK and the Arabs in Northern Syria came in an interesting time with regional and international changes. The latest is the increasing US military activism around the Iraq-Syria border. There is no open statement about that but many suspect (including the former Iraqi prime minister Maliki) about closing the border to Iran and its proxies to take control of the Assad regime. There were also rumors that the SDG refused to be part of the military operation that might require fighting against Iran-affiliated militias. Therefore, it is expected that the USA is now more willing to establish Arab dominated fighting force, bothering the SDG leadership in the region.   On the hand, Iran is happy to see the skirmishes among the opponents of the Assad regime, i.e.  the SDG and Sunni Arabs. Iran also knows that the conflicts will hurt American plans to limit Iranian influence, especially after it sided with Russia in the Ukraine war. Another benefit for Iran is to regain the sympathy and the trust of Sunni Arabs after it damaged them in Syria and Iraq. Like Russia, Iran is happy to see the weakening any Syrian groups that oppose the Assad regime. Russia even attacked other Arab tribes that were going to fight against SDG in Deirezzor. Both Russia and Iran do not want a change in the Syrian Status quo against their plans. Therefore, the outcome of the clashes between SDG and Arab tribes carries to have serious implications for the future of the PKK and Iran in Syria.   اقرأ الأصل باللغة العربية

Education Positions Publications Congresses Projects Prizes *Türkçe *عربية Turkish-Iraqi Relations from the past to the future Prof. Dr. Ahmet UYSAL Even though Iraq as a name and a political body is new but its territory is a craddle of civilizations. It was the home of Mesopotamia with a great mix of Arabs, Kurds and Turks. In fact the arrival of Turks also marks more than 1000 years during the Abbasid era. Then the Turks rose to the ruling positions with the Seljukis until being destroyed by the Mongol invasions. Later during the Ottoman period, Iraq prospered with agriculture and trade so much so that the Ottomans said “There is no beloved like a mother, nor a city like Baghdad” is a proof of the Turks’ fascination with Iraq With partnership with the Germans, the Berlin-Baghdad railroad project was resembling China’s recent project of road and belt. If completed, this major project would change the balance of trade and power to the favor of the Ottoman empire while Iraqi people would benefit from it a lot. However, the World War I blocked this progress as the region was invaded by Great Britain and they controlled the resource of newly found Iraqi oil. The all factions of the Iraqi society (i.e. Shia, Sunni, Kurds, Arabs, Turkmens, etc.) supported the Ottoman state against the British invasion. After the war, the general “divide and rule policy” in the region and the ensuing political instability did not allow Iraq to achieve its real potential. The borders of new Iraq and Turkey were drawn according to the 1926 Ankara Treaty that also bans the harboring any illegal groups against each other. After the independence of Iraq from Britain, the bilateral relations increased between Turkey and Iraq. In 1932, the King Faisal visited Turkey and then appointed his brother prince Zaid as an ambassador to Turkey. In 1937, Turkey and Iraq signed a non-aggression treaty that included Iran and Afghanistan as well. A similar approach continued after the World War II with the establishment of the Baghdad Pact that later included İran, Pakistan and the UK but Iraq withdrew from it after a military coup by Abdalkarim Qasim in 1958. The Turkish-Iraqi relations continued during the Saddam rule despite the fact that Saddam’s Arabist policies were suppressing Turkmens and other groups. The Saddam government allowed Turkish operations inside Iraq. In fact, the Ankara treaty requires one country not preventing terrorist groups from attacking either country. The Turkish exports to Iraq deteriorated during the American embargo on Iraq during the 1990s. The fall of the Saddam Hussein coincided with the newly arrival of the AK Party in power as the Turkish parliament did not allow American troops to use its territories. The US invasion of Iraq did bring stability, real democracy and prosperity to Iraq. President Obama left Iraq for the Iranian influence, damaging Turkish interests. The arrival of ISIS targeted both Turkey and Iraq. Similarly, the presence of the PKK is also damaging stability and security of both countries and the relations between the two. Today, the PKK issue remains the most thorny issue between Iraq and Turkey because the USA, Iran and some Kurdish factions support or symphatize with the PKK. Unlike the Barzani faction, the Talebani faction in Sulaimania tolerate the PKK activities in their areas. Among the Shia factions, the pro-Iran Hashd Shaabi groups also cooperate with the PKK terrorist groups. We witness an improvement in Iraqi understanding against the PKK both in Erbil and Baghdad. The other problematic issue between the two countries is the water issue. As a source country, Turkey built dams in around the rivers of Tigris and Euphrates to produce electricity and agriculture and it does not divert rivers like Iran. We keep hearing from the Iraqis demanding from Turkey to release more water but the problem in Iraq is not mismanagement of water including pollution and evaporation. Iraq also have other infrastructure problems vis-à-vis electricity and transportation. On the positive side Turkey and Iraq want to improve relations as they each other to open up to the East and the West. Economic and political relations continue to improve significantly after the Maliki period that witnessed the worst point. After the arrival of the Sudani government this trend accelerated as he tries to balance and diversify the relations with neighbors. The recent visit of the Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan to Iraq during with he was welcomed by almost all actors in Iraq. We witnessed promising talks about security cooperation and Turkey’s support for the trade corridor through Iraq. اقرأ الأصل باللغة العربية

Education Positions Publications Congresses Projects Prizes *Türkçe *عربية Are we mediating between our brothers in the Middle East? Prof. Dr. Ahmet UYSAL Islam is religion of peace but Muslims do not live in peace today. This is especially true for the Middle East where conflicts almost never end, including the ones from Syria to Sudan. Most of the Middle East conflicts are between Muslim groups with its sectarian, tribal and ethnic motives. The main reasons for the conflicts of our region are related to foreign interventions and big power competition but we cannot blame only other for the emergence of these conflicts. What about the Quranic principle of reforming between brothers? After the collapse of the Ottoman empire, the Sykes-Picot order was imposed on the people of what is called the Middle East that includes the Arab world, Turkey, İran and Israel. The region is an intersection of three continents and seven seas and two oceans. The region is also the source of major oil and natural gas exports and has a good potential for trade. Therefore, there will always be an outside interest in the region since the time of the Macedonian Alexander to the Roman and Ottoman empires and today. The outside influences do not negate our responsibility to seek solutions to our problems and conflicts that are abundant in our region.  We have the institutions such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League that fail always to achieve peace in the Middle East, jsut like the United Nations failed to achieve peace in the world. The armed conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Sudan along with several conflicts that involve Muslims in Africa and Asia.  In addition, both global powers and regional powers try to use terrorist groups or proxies to weaken other countries. Are our hands tied against all these internal or Muslim-Muslim conflicts or rather what can we do? Islam orders us to mediate between spouses (Quran 4/35) and between fighting groups (49/9). So mediation is necessary between people or groups in conflict. If we apply these principles to our conflict we enjoy peace and prosperity and thrive. The current institutions such as the OIC and Arab League can be revitalized. However, there is not much hope as these organizations failed continuously until today due to narrow calculations and to lack of real willpower in that regard. Today we live in a globalized and changing world and a new approach is necessary for intra-Muslim conflicts. This new approach would be to involve the intellectuals and civil society. Both Muslim intellectuals and civil society organizations can overcome tribal, territorial, ethnic and sectarian divisions. From Afghanistan to Sudan, old tribal mediation method sometimes solves the conflicts that the governments failed. We can build on this tradition to deal more effectively with modern needs and conflicts. An effective mediation requires that conflicting parties must be tired of fighting and they seek a resolution. Sometimes the desire for revenge can sustain conflicts for years.  Then, a mediator can serve to bring them together to stop this vicious circle. Of course, the mediator must be respected by both sides. Fairness and win-win principle must prevail in the mediation process The Chinese mediation between Saudis and Iranians was good for the region but we needed that long before from withing the region. We do not know how committed China is for such a mediating role in other conflicts in the Middle East. However, we can use this as an opportunity to build even a stronger vision and even a stronger organization just for peace mediation and conflict resolution in our conflictual region. The Islamic concept of ıslah bayn akhawain is more than just mediating as it entails coercion on the aggressor after the mediation efforts fail. It justifies using force to stop the aggressor between two Muslim groups if one parts insists on maintaining the conflict. Maybe we cannot implement the coercive measures on aggressors today but we can definitely put pressure on those who prefer fighting over coming to the peace table. We should also keep in mind that those who fight with other today can become good friends tomorrow. اقرأ الأصل باللغة العربية

Education Positions Publications Congresses Projects Prizes *Türkçe *عربية Does the Assad Regime Wants the Syrian Refugees Back? Prof. Dr. Ahmet UYSAL After some Arab countries normalized with the Assad regime and was also re-admitted Syria to the Arab League, the hopes for a solution to the Syrian crisis have risen. However, the recent interview by Bashar al Asad on an Arab TV raised the question whether the Assad regime is ready for a comprehensive solution and especially whether he wants the Syrian refugees back to Syria. The return of Syrian refugees is the main reason why countries such as Jordan and Turkey have softened their stance toward the Assad regime. Does Assad and hi allies want the Syrians back to their home? First of all, the Syrian regimes supervisors of Iran, namely Iran and Russia, do not seek the end of the Syrian crisis because Russia is busy with the Ukraine war and Iran is trying consolidate its presence in Syrian society, economy and politics. Neither has the capacity to fund the reconstruction Syria even if the deadlock is resolved. Because Iran also uses the current situation to spread its Shia sect either by converting the Sunnis or by bringing Shias from Afghanistan or Pakistan, it does not have an interest the return of mostly Sunni refugees around the world. Not feeling a real pressure from outside, the Assad regime does not show any serious intention to bring back Syrians refugees. Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon where the refugees are concentrated will be very happy see Syrians could go back to Syria. Arab Gulf countries also concerned about the production and export of addictive drugs from Syria. Because the regime did not change much of its actions after normalization, we notice a lessening of enthusiasm to embrace the Assad regime in the Arab capitals. The Assad regime’s misconducts such as unlawful detentions, torture, rape, incarceration and execution continues to create obstacles for its citizens’ return. Some Syrian refugees returned to Syria from Jordan in 2021 but they were mis-treaded and were subject to the same old abuses as mentions Human Rights Watch report. In the past, the regime has confiscated the assets of many deserters, detainees and convicts, including their houses, lands and vehicles in Syria. One can ask why then the Syrian government periodically declares general amnesties to invite Syrians back home? These amnesties are used as a propaganda method to claim normalcy and competency in the country, but the calls did not convince Syrians outside. Amnesty International’s report titled “You’re going to your death” published in 2021 revealed that 66 Syrians, 13 of whom were children, who returned to their countries following various calls for amnesty, were targets of detention, torture, rape and executions. Turkey is trying to resettle 1 million Syrian refugees in Northern Syria in cooperation with Qatar by building homes and supporting economic infrastructure. However, the Assad regime rejected Turkey’s project to send Syrian refugees back to “safe zones” on the Syrian border as its Foreign Minister’s statement claims it would lead to an ethnic cleansing. But it does not explain how it would be an ethnic cleansing. On the other hand, the Iranian backed militias and foreign Shia communities that settled in the Sunni territories also intimidate anyone trying to go back to his hometown. Such actions intimidate Syrian refugees and discourage them from returning to Syria. Secondly, the Assad regime does not have the capacity to receive the Syrian refugees due to harsh economic conditions there. In the recent interview, Bashar Assad himself admitted his failure to embrace Syrians by saying “during the last years, less than half a million Syrian returned because of economic conditions. How can a refugee return without water, electricity, schools and healthcare available?” In conclusion, the Assad regime does want the return of Syrian and does not have the capacity to welcome them to live a descent life. اقرأ الأصل باللغة العربية