Ahmet Uysal

BIG POWERS AND THE PALESTINE CRISIS

Prof. Dr. Ahmet UYSAL

What is the approach of major big powers toward the recent conflict in Gaza and Israel’s continuing onslaughts against the Palestinian people. It is understandable that the West did not want to change the status quo they designed in the Middle East. However, other big powers do not see a major change there, either. For example, Russia’s president Putin said that Israel has been victim of terrific attack and has a right to self-defense against the unprecedented brutality of Hamas attack and stressed the need for a ceasefire and a two-state solution.

In a benign understanding with the USA, Russia has interests in Syria, Libya and Iraq so it will try to maintain its interests there. The Ukraine war did not even change their understanding on the future of Assad and Haftar. Russia is trying to balance between Hamas and Israel as well as between Israel and Iran that is a major supplier of drones to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Interestingly Russia has good relations with the Israeli radical right (Netanyahu and Lieberman) while its ally Iran supports Hamas. On the other hand, we observe that Russian institutions such as intelligence and foreign ministry lean toward Arabs with they have close ties since the Soviet time.

As a major superpower, China that is trying to balance its relations with the warring sides indirectly criticized Hamas attacks without naming it. With the aggravating situation in Gaza, China became critical of Israeli actions in the Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s words “Israel’s actions have gone beyond self-defense and Israel must not implement a collective punishment of Gazzan people.” With a low profile approach in the Middle East issues, China’s main concern is to secure trade routes in the Middle East, reflected in its military basis in Djibouti to prevent piracy against Chinese vessels.

The Middle East is important to China as it buys a half of its oil from and natural gas with 15 percent. These rates are expected to rise in the future as well. Without taking side in the conflict, China supports a two-state solution in Palestine. China might even consider mediating between Israel and Palestine as it did between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Moreover, there are two differences in China and US policies toward Israeli-Palestinian conflict. One, China does not feel internal pressure to intervene in the conflict. Two, China does not have allies to defend in the Middle East.

With its third world tradition, India historically aligned with Arabs as it was the first non-Arab countries that recognized the PLO. However, Indu nationalist Modi changed this approach in recent years. After the Hamas attacks, Modi came out to support Israel and said Hamas is a terrorist organization. Indian foreign ministry try to look more balanced after the Modi statements. On the other hand, 200 million Indian Muslims and other non-Muslims historically sympathize with Palestine. India’s colonial past make the public opinion there more sypathetic to the occupied Palestine.

In the election year, Modi’s anti-Muslim approach brings him closer to Israel and Netanyahu. Today India and Israel also have very strong military relations. Like China, India also buys Middle East oil and wants to establish an alternative trade corridor through the Gulf and Israel to Europe as recently announced. The Palestine crisis and instability in Israel might hinder this difficult project. India is facing diplomatic crisis with Canada (US neighbor) that accused them for killing a Sikh leaders in their territories. India did not support the West in the Ukraine war so now it might try to do more to please the USA by supporting Israel.